Nifty story, but is that what happened in Baghdad on June 29? Discerning truth from fantasy in postwar Iraq is never easy. The Bush administration was leery about preliminary reports of a failed coup, even though officials are hungry for a return on their covert program to de-stabilize Saddam. For more than a week after Iraqi dissidents claimed Saddam had been attacked, official Washington declined to confirm that there was any basis at all to the reports. Defense Secretary Dick Cheney offered only a “personal guess” that Saddam had been targeted. Skeptics suggested Saddam had leaked the account himself as a pretext for a major purge of his officer corps. In the Middle East, some called the coup report disinformation by Saddam’s foes. But U.S. intelligence officials said last week they had concluded that Saddam had indeed survived a serious assassination attempt.
Assuming their account is accurate, where does Saddam now stand? Obviously, he is beleaguered. Betrayal by a Republican Guard battalion would support the view that U.N. sanctions have cost Saddam the loyalty of key military units. “He’s still feeling a lot of internal pressure, and he will as long as the sanctions are in place,” said one administration official. However, Saddam’s security services have proven their effectiveness-and given Saddam a chance to demonstrate the cost of disloyalty. He wears a bulletproof vest, and security men always frisk anyone who comes into the room with him, say intelligence sources. A recent CIA estimate concluded that he continues to shore up his political and military base; satellite photos show workers repairing suspected biological- and chemical-weapons facilities. Even the administration official concedes “everyone agrees he’s strong.”
Indeed, Saddam may be secure enough to stay in power longer than George Bush, in the view of regional powers now hedging their bets. Some Iranian officials contend that they are better off having Saddam next door than a more popular, independent regime. Syria’s Hafez Assad has clamped down on resident Iraqi exiles and threatened to open the border with Iraq in an apparent effort to win concessions from Washington on arms acquisitions. All in all, the U.S. destabilization program has been “pretty much a limp effort,” one U.S. intelligence source conceded. It has funneled cash to Iraqi dissidents, paid for a clandestine radio station and condoned Saudi attempts to flood Iraq with counterfeit currency, according to intelligence sources, who say the CIA had no direct contact with the coup plotters. Now Saddam’s best-equipped internal foes may have taken their best shot–and missed.
