George W. Bush’s reputation may be at stake nationally as voters decide whether to support those candidates the president embraces, but it is here, where Bush served one and a half terms as governor, that his presence looms largest. “He has spent the last two weeks going through 15 states and staking his own political prestige and capital,” says Cal Jillson, political science professor at Southern Methodist University. “It is important to him that the Republicans do well nationally, and it is even more so here in Texas. This is his home state, and this is where he was a very popular governor.”
That’s probably why the president spent Election Day eve at a Dallas rally before thousands of flag-waving Republicans. They were there in support of Gov. Rick Perry, the Republican who assumed the state’s top job when President Bush left for the White House, and state Attorney General John Cornyn, who is vying for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Phil Gramm. Bush spent the night at his ranch in Crawford, and voted this morning at a local firehouse. “I’m encouraging all people across this country to vote,” the president said as he left the polling station.
Recent polls show Perry with comfortable leads over Democratic contender Tony Sanchez, a businessman from largely Hispanic south Texas. But the senate race is far closer, with one recent poll showing Ron Kirk, a former Dallas mayor and former Texas secretary of State, within 1 percentage point of Cornyn. If Kirk wins, he will be the first black senator from Texas. His victory also would send a clear message to Washington, says Jillson. “That would say to George Bush that when you’re gone, you no longer exercise the same sway you once did,” he says. “This [Bush] is a very popular man in Texas. But his name is not on the ballot.”
Voters, however, say Bush is hardly out of sight, out of mind. “I think it’s important not to hold up the president,” says one 58-year-old man from Houston who asked not to be named. He said he voted for Cornyn in part to help Bush move along his agenda on Capitol Hill.
Valarie Santos, also of Houston, did what many Texans are expected to do today in this conservative state. “I voted strictly Republican,” says Santos. “I like their value system; they’re not so Hollywood. They’re just good people with family values.”
Others focused more on the candidates. “I voted for the person, rather than the party line,” says one 68-year-old woman who also asked not to be named. “I believe the president and others in Washington have gotten so embedded in politics that they’ve lost touch with what’s best for the people.”
As she left the Church of Christ, the woman says she cast her vote for Kirk, in part to retain a balance of power in Washington. “He could do the job as well any anyone else,” she says of the former mayor. “And I don’t think they [the Republicans] should have total control, or vice versa.”
Whatever the outcome, it will be the result of a relatively large voter presence. The state saw a record-breaking turnout in early voting, with the largest 15 counties casting 1,018,664 votes before Election Day. That was up from 600,286 in 1998, the year of the last nonpresidential election, according to figures released by the secretary of State’s office.
The trend was expected to continue until the polls close at 7 p.m. State election officials predict that roughly 5 million Texans will ultimately vote. That’s 40 percent of all registered voters and a significant increase from the 32.4 percent that voted in 1998. Still, pollster Bob Stein, a political-science professor at Rice University, says that for Kirk to win, he has to get minority voters to the polls. Stein recalled that Houston Mayor Lee Brown, an African-American, won a close race last year against a white conservative opponent by rallying minorities.
“Kirk will need to do that statewide,” Stein says. “It will take the same effort but on a different scale.” He predicts, however, that at the end of the day Cornyn will prevail. “I think the race is as close as it could be,” he says. “But I don’t see how Kirk can do it.”
