So now we know. Chávez, who once spoke of “improving capitalism” and claimed never to have read Marx, for the first time referred to himself as “a communist.” Like Castro in 1961, he announced plans to nationalize key foreign-owned corporations (in electricity, oil refining and telecommunications), denounced external interference and urged his compatriots to join the “revolution.” He did not (as Castro did) abolish elections. But Chávez did declare that he’ll repeal the Constitution’s two-term presidential limit and merge all progovernment parties into a single bloc. At a time when aides are moving to extend state control of the media and cap business profits, Chávez let his true colors show. “The time has come,” he declared, “to put an end to privilege [and] inequality.”
Why now? Chávez has given radical speeches before, only to pull back. His power, however, has grown enormously. He won last month’s vote by 26 percent and now controls all state institutions and billions of dollars in oil revenue. No matter that last year voters in the region rejected his friends: as he sees it, allies came to power in Bolivia, Nicaragua and Ecuador. And his nemesis, George W. Bush, looks weaker than ever. Moreover, his domestic support has spread. “Chavismo is very heterogeneous,” says Oscar Schemel, chairman of the polling company Hinterlaces. Although much of the president’s support is concentrated among the poor, in recent years a new rich business class has emerged that is tied to the government.
That doesn’t mean Chávez is genuinely in step with his people. Only a minority of Venezuelans are interested in true socialism. Hinterlace polls show that more than 80 percent reject the Cuban model, says Schemel. And when Chávez spoke in August 2005 of fusing the two countries into “Venecuba,” his popularity dipped by several percentage points. Even people “who have become multimillionaires under Chávez” are worried by his latest shift, says business consultant Miguel Angel Capriles.
The big question is whether Chávez will push forward now. Alberto Garrido, a political analyst, says Chávez truly believes in both radical egalitarianism and his own “hypothesis of war” with the United States. Both impel him to control strategic elements of the economy. And he has already reshaped the armed forces to make defense against “the empire” their overriding task.
Circumstances, however, may restrain him. Francisco Rodríguez, a former economic adviser to the Venezuelan Parliament, notes that a constitutional amendment extending Chávez’s term must be submitted to a referendum, and “if there is an election he could lose, it is this one.” Then there is the economy, which is heading for trouble, especially if oil prices drop. Capriles argues that the nationalizations will be limited by Caracas’s desire to attract foreign investment and issue international bonds. Radical measures will scare off investors, pushing the economy toward recession. If that happens, Rodríguez says, “Chávez’s popularity may start to decline rapidly.” Of course, Chávez would not be the first true and truly unpopular communist.
